This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Surprising Championship Bid

Just eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a through-ball. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the source of the side's more general malaise.

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. When the in-form star swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win any of their first six matches, are somehow just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have stacked up.

According to the data, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, they look weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.

Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

Can It Last?

Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on blasting the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
• The attacking talent might become the player he was in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.