A United Ireland Referendum Must Not Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Analysts Caution

A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."