A Alert to Keir Starmer from His Personal Past: If You're Not Bold regarding Brexit and the EU, Your Party Challengers Might Be.

Seven years ago, a mere eight words to energize a Labour conference and to show Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Evolution in Position and Closed Debates

Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy & Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from concluding that this renders the US an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Danger & A Prudent Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be wise of him to remember the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.